巴西低收入群体博彩激增引发担忧

Jenny Ortiz September 30, 2024

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巴西低收入群体博彩激增引发担忧

巴西正经历使用其即时支付系统Pix进行在线博彩活动的激增,自2024年1月以来,相关交易增长了200%以上。据当地报道,巴西中央银行已将这一激增视为信用质量下降的潜在警告信号,特别是在包括“家庭补助金”(Bolsa Família)受益人在内的低收入群体中。博彩活动的迅速增长引发了对个人债务增加和违约风险上升的担忧,尤其是在脆弱群体中。

巴西中央银行明确指出,“家庭补助金”受益人与在线博彩的增长之间存在紧密联系。平均交易金额大幅增长,加剧了对长期金融不稳定的担忧。许多低收入群体受到通过博彩快速获取财富的吸引,可能因此面临日益严重的债务问题。

经济影响与通胀忧虑

除了对博彩趋势上升的担忧外,巴西中央银行还密切关注该国的经济轨迹。通胀仍然是一个重大挑战,经济增长超出预期以及低失业率使得这一问题更加棘手。虽然这些因素通常是积极的指标,但它们推动了通胀压力,使其偏离了中央银行的目标。

目前,巴西经济的扩张速度略高于其潜力,中央银行预测,由于新的财政规则,政府支出将放缓。然而,这并未完全缓解人们对财政透明度的担忧,因为最近风险溢价的上升反映了对数据透明度的不确定性,而非实际支出增长。

中央银行博彩市场研究的见解

上周,中央银行发布了一份关于巴西在线博彩行业的深入报告,旨在评估市场的规模和范围。这项由参议员Omar Aziz委托的研究揭示了追踪博彩行业的挑战,因为许多公司以模糊或误分类的名称运营。这种缺乏透明度使得很难评估行业的全貌。

2024年8月,巴西的在线博彩行业向博彩公司转移了近210亿雷亚尔(3.45亿欧元),显示出其迅速扩张。然而,许多公司仍未在官方经济部门中列名,给监管工作带来了复杂性。研究估计,约15%的赌注由博彩平台保留,其余部分则作为奖金分配给投注者。

投注者的画像

中央银行的报告还提供了关于巴西投注者人口统计的见解。许多参与者年龄在20到30岁之间,分析期间约有2400万人参与在线博彩。数据显示,2024年8月,17%的“家庭补助金”受益人参与了博彩活动。月均投注金额差异显著,视年龄而定,范围从100雷亚尔(16.44欧元)到3000多雷亚尔(493.48欧元)不等。

报告强调了低收入家庭对在线博彩吸引力的脆弱性,许多人可能将其视为改善财务状况的潜在途径。据报道,超过500万“家庭补助金”家庭的个人在一个月内向博彩公司转移了30亿雷亚尔(4.935亿欧元)。

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